Kurdish to play key role in forming government

Kurdish to play key role in forming government in Iraq
Iraq held its second national election on March 7, 2010 since Saddam Hossain was toppled. The election shored up the country’s fragile democracy but the months ahead were fraught with potential dangers far more worrying that the bombs that echoed through Baghdad as voters went to the polls over the weekend. Now Iraqi politicians ‘attention has turned to what sort of alliances are likely to be forged to form a new government because none of the parties by themselves are powerful enough to form a government. Early indications show prime ministers Nouri al- Maliki’s Rule of Law coalition leading in the south but former premier Iyad Allawi’ list coming in either second or third in each of the southern provinces. Mr. Maliki who heads the current Shiite-dominated government, has traditionally been strong in the Shiite south but voters across the country seem to be continuing a trend of turning away from region based parties in favour of coalitions they believe can offer them more basic things such as jobs and electricity.
The prime minister though remains personally popular for having taken on Shiite militias’-sending in the Iraqi Army to drive them out from Basra and other cities that had fallen under their control. His support declines, however, in the largely Sunni West and in the north where many Iraqis feel they have been neglected by the central government. Officials from the Independent High Electoral Commission estimated the turnout in the elections was 62 percent of the 19 million eligible voters. Despite the attackers in Baghdad and other cities including Mosul ,Faulah, Bauba and elsewhere, the election has been hailed as milestone in Iraq’s history. Insurgent had threaded to disrupt the elections but elections were held and now government is going to be formed as well. Allawi, a secular Shitte, who was installed as transitional prime minister by the US in 2003 heads a broader based coalition that is also seen as less sectarian. The major Kurdish parties are expected to play a key role in building or backing any coalition. None of the major parties will have enough votes to form the government so definitely the Kurds can play a very important role. Massoud Barzani, president of the Kurdish regional government told the Monitor in a recent interview. ‘For us in the Kurdishtan regions we are not going to decide on how to be part of the alliances because there are many important issues we should negotiate.’ He said that included the commitment of any potential coalition parties to solving the issue of Kurkuk, the disputed oil-rich city which Kurds claim as their historic capital.
So for Iraqis this election is going to be more intense than the last, as they understand there is much to lose if they do not participate. When the competition is more intense, the stakes are higher. We will likely see shortly some close outcomes potentially leading to disputed results. Political side will declare winners and losers. Passions will rise. This will create tension within the system and delays will result –potentially lengthening the timeline for the formation of Parliament and selection of a Prime Minister . but this is healthy. The expected and demanded change in Iraq is the only route toward the country’s stability; hence the map of new balances in the region will be declining the fears of Arab countries regarding the growing Iranian role. Internationally the election results are also important because Iraq’s stability will allow the US to proceed with its partial troop’s pullout schedule. This will also enhance US president Barack Obam’s positions in the yes of the US public. Of the European and others around the world a stable Iraq will be the best place for investment as the country has been reduced to rubble and needs to be rebuilt from scratch.
The great hope for Iraq’s March 7 national election was that could they restore faith in the democratic process and set a new tone of national purpose in Baghdad’s corridors of power and the great fear was that without clear winners and losers, the elections could produce months bitter infighting heightening the sectarian and ethnic tension behind the civil war that broke out after the 2005 election The results currently are so close with current Prime Minister Nouri-al- Maliki neck and neck with former Prime Minster Ayad Allawi, and the movement of radical Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr emerging with what may be a kingmaker’s share of the vote----that Iraq could see months of deadlock that will do little to boost the country’s faith in it politicians. Moreover, the election results have broken down along depressingly familiar sectarian and the ethnic fault lines.
The major political blocs appeared to have recognized that no single ethnic group or sect could govern peacefully and effectively without making alliance across traditional fault line. The big parties put forward diverse coalitions preaching national unity, even if each retained a core identify well known to voter: Malikis State of Law coalition ran on a law and order platform but drew primarily from the moderate Shiite based. Malikit took a risk by separating himself from the Shiite Iraqi National Alliance that had propelled him to power but struggled nonetheless to present himself as a truly national figure. While he had cracked down hard against terrorism and militias, especially the radical Shiite followers of Moqtada al Sadr, his support for a government de-Baathification committee banned 500 parliamentary candidates. Malikis troubles have been a boon to the Sadrisits, who entered the elections as the junior partner in the INA but appear to be among the big winners of the elections and stand to win as many as 40 seats out of the 325 in the national assembly. Potentially making their support crucial for any would –be prime minister.
Another major stumbling block in the negotiations to form a government will be the oil-rich city of Kirkuk and the other disputed areas in northern Iraq. In a surprising turnout, the Kurdish parties appear to have lost Kirkuk by a slim margin to Allawi’s list which has taken a hard line against Kurdish claims to the city. Since Maliki whose current government was installed with Kurdish support but dragged its feet on Kurdish claims to Kirkuk-now are possible partners to form a government, he may find himself more dependent on them than ever.

Md. Masum Billah
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