Will Georgian conflict further escalate?

Will Georgian conflict further escalate?

‘No tank, no Russian solder has left Georgia till August 19 though it was supposed to have begun on August 18 according to the peace deal brokered by France to end the conflict between Russia and its southern tiny neighbour Georgia. Russian troops entered Gori, an important and strategic Georgian city, on August 14 after the two sides signed ceasefire that called for their forces to pull back to the positions they held before the fighting started. Hundreds killed since hostilities broke out. The United Nations estimated that 1180000 Georgians have been uprooted. Russia says some 30000 residents of South Ossetia fled into the neighbouring Russian province of North Ossetia. To help these displaced people aid is flowing into Georgia but humanitarian groups said that lawlessness and banditry made it impossible to distribute it in the worst hit areas. Bush warned this situation in this language, “We will use US aircraft as well as naval forces to distribute relief goods.”

Paramilitary and criminal groups are taking advantage of the uncertainty and the lack of administration and police. Watkin, UN resident coordinator described the situation as “In terms of security it is very similar to what happened after the invasion of Iraq.” On August 14, a visit to Gori by UN security officials on a mission to assess the security situation ended in disarray when they were held up at gunpoint and had two of their UN-marked vehicles stolen. People fleeing the conflict zone have told AFP of widespread looting, arson and murder and several journalists in Gori have been robbed at gunpoint.” We have access to everywhere except the neediest areas” Daniela Cavin, a regional spokesman for the EU’s humanitarian department told AFP.“ We don’t know how many people are in the conflict zone. All those that were able to leave have left but the ones have stayed are the most vulnerable.”“ In principle we should be able to get access but the security situation doesn’t allow us to go in at the moment. We are pushing to have that access”.”—Jessica Barry, a spokeswoman of humanitarian group said.

Georgia, bordering the Black Sea between Turkey and Russia was ruled by Moscow for most of the two centuries preceding the 1991 break up of the Soviet Union.“ One can forget about any talk about Georgian territorial integrity because I believe it is impossible to persuade South Ossetia and Abkahzia to agree with the logic that they can be forced back into the Goergian state”---- Foreign minister of Russia Lavrov said.

The United States expressed its reaction to the conflict. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice flew on August 14 to France and then to Tbilisi to reinforce US efforts to rally the world in defense of a free Georgia. She told in Washington “This is not 1968 and the invasion of Czechoslovakia where Russia can threaten a neighbour, occupy a capital, overthrow a government and get away with it. Things have changed.” She continued, “Russia’s six day old military action in Georgia is a throwback to darker Cold War times.” Bush says, “US stands with the democratically elected government of Georgia and inside that the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Georgia be respected.” Actually their message goes like this that Russia has perhaps not accepted that it is time to move on to a new era in which relations between states are on the basis of equality and sovereignty and economic integration.

Human Rights Watch further reported that they witnessed terrifying scenes of destruction in four villages that used to be populated exclusively by ethnic Georgians. They saw armed Ossetia militia members in camouflage fatigues taking furniture, TV sets, heaters and other household goods out of houses in one village. The remaining residents of these destroyed ethnic Georgian villages are facing desperate conditions with no means of survival, no help, no protection and nowhere to go. Any sort of conflict invites untold miseries to millions who don’t have any link or belonging to it. The world leaders must realize it genuinely. Each conflict originates from their ego and petty interest. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has rightly said “It is completely unacceptable for the legitimacy of the democratically elected government of Georgia- to be put into questions.” Like all other truths it is equally true that The problems in the Caucasus cannot be solved militarily.”

It shows a ray of hope that in the midst of continued tension Georgian president Mikeil Saakashvili called for talks with Russian president to prevent a ‘definite estrangement’ between the two sides. It is true that Russian relations with European Union will seriously damage if Moscow fails to fully implement the peace deal it signed with Georgia. Sarkozy emphasized in their telephone call, “Withdrawal without decay of all Russian military forces which have entered Georgia since August 7”. The two presidents agreed on “development as quickly as possible of international Overseas from Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe)


Georgia says Russia is meddling in its internal matters. Russia argues it cannot stand aside because many of the people in the breakaway are now its citizens and supporting the separatists. Georgia accuses Russia of playing double standard role. Russia is suppressing its own separatists in Chechnya while encouraging the separatists of Georgia. Russia has become more involved when Georgia expressed his interest to join Nato. The Russian army announced that it had liberated the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvaki as Georgia declared a state of war. South Ossetia broke from Georgia in early 1990. It has since been a constant source of friction between Georgia and Russia. South Ossetia has long sought unification with North Ossetia which is inhibited by the same Ossestian ethnic group but ended up across the border in Russia after the collapse of Soviet Union in 1991.

The present conflict between these two neighbours could widen to bring in the other Soviet republics, United States and Europe. Perceiving the fact, the United States and European Union are leading a diplomatic push to prevent all out war between Russia and Georgia. USA calls on Russia to cease attacks on Georgia by aircrafts and missiles , respect Georgia’s territorial integrity and withdraw its ground combat forces from Georgian soil. But a Russian defense official’s indication of ‘complete withdrawal from Georgian proper is not imminent’ baffles us. Still we hope to see peaceful solution to the present conflict.


Md. Masum Billah
Programme Manager: Brac Education Programme, PACE
(He regularly writes on various national and international issues)
Phone: 9355253 (home), 01715-401267 (cell)
Email: mmbillah2000@yahoo.com